The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Really stop reading. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Hillary Clinton (578) From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The divisions were everywhere. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States First, what are bellwether counties? Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. hide caption. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Trump won 18 of the 19. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. 2. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Watauga has gone for. Trump gave them hope. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) It is easy to gloss over this. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Demographics (84) Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. All rights reserved. Bellwether - Wikipedia They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. 12. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Just how big is it? 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Thank you for supporting our journalism. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Will That Last?]. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. "They followed through the whole four years. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Trump won the other 18 counties. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. 5. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Until this year. Seriously. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Want to dive deeper? If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. (Go to the bottom of the page. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Here's why. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. All other 21 counties voted Republican. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. University of Denver, 2. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Website Updates Paused "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region.
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